2024-25 revenues now $4.1 billion above estimates

Moreover, 2023-24 revenues were $3.2 billion above estimates

The Department of Finance’s monthly Finance Bulletin shows that California General Fund receipts for this fiscal year finished September at $4.1 billion (10.9%) above 2024-25 budget act estimates, consistent with preliminary data from earlier this month. Finance analysts say part of the overage may be due to earlier-than-expected boosts from the corporate tax credit limitation and net operating loss suspension in the 2024-25 budget.

In addition to the 2024-25 revenue strength, note that 2023-24 General Fund receipts were $3.2 billion above budget estimates.

Proposition 98 “maintenance factor” can be expected to increase required payments to public schools to a large extent in line with 2024-25 state revenue gains. Moreover, voter decisions on some ballot measures may affect the state’s budget position. Accordingly, little of the revenue gains identified so far are likely to boost the state budget bottom line, and outyear deficits previously have been projected.